Crypto Chartbook: Concentration – The Biggest Fear, Embarrassment (Cryptocurrency:BTC-USD)

The ultimate truth is that each one of us is much more than just what we do or how much digits we have in our bank account! However, investing and especially trading are a profession, and during the challenging ups & downs of the market one can easily lose sight of that. Train yourself to think in probabilities, meaning sample size versus individual trade outcome. Right now for example, the multi-week sideways consolidation in Bitcoin is statistically likely (>75%) to end very soon with a breakout towards US$10,000 and higher…

The biggest fear, embarrassment

Trading is an intimate sport. You can do it behind a closed door in your underwear. But at some point, if you don’t make it in this profession it all comes out. One can’t hide sustained losses forever. You might be even oblivious to yourself for a long time. The day of embarrassment at some point is here. Larger than the pain of loss is the embarrassment of failure. This is especially painful because investing is portrayed as this easy thing that everybody should do, does, and supposedly is successful in. All facts far from the truth but magnifiers for the embarrassing moments when fessing up to one’s spouse, parents, friends, and possible investors. When going under in a venture like a restaurant or online business blame can be attributed to circumstances and other factors. In trading, all the weight is on the market player’s shoulders. The biggest fear, embarrassment.

BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Be Transparent:

BTC-USDT, daily chart as of July 19th, 2020

We placed a long entry live in our Telegram Channel for a daily time frame reload long entry. Exposing entries like these in real time to the public results in emotional accountability. One way to not hide behind closed doors.

On the daily chart for Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the sideways triangle is approaching an apex that makes this early entry a low risk near the lower support line (green directional line).

BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Keeping Logs:

BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of July 20th, 2020

The weekly chart above illustrates the larger time frame reason why we think a long participation is sensible. Keeping a log book with charts and detailed entries on why to engage into the market at a specific time and price is another way of keeping honesty with yourself. In addition a defined strategy not only for entries but also for exits needs to be in place. As always, we use our quad exit strategy.

The possible cup and handle formation suggests a move towards the US$10,000 to US$11,000 target zone. Estimated within three to four weeks. This timeline estimate stems from Bitcoin´s 75% time probability of handle to cup formations within this time frame to be statistically typical.

Fundamentally, institutional demand for Bitcoin has been soaring amid the coronavirus crisis, as multi-billion dollar bitcoin and crypto-asset manager Grayscale Bitcoin trust (GBTC) reported its biggest-ever quarterly inflows of almost US$1 billion.

BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, The Biggest Fear, Embarrassment:

BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of July 20th, 2020

The monthly chart is the far removed guideline suggesting the true reasons for market participation. Nothing is more valuable than removal from details. Most traders get stuck due to a lack of the larger picture in a specific situation. Train yourself to always keep in mind what truly matters! Focus on principle and rule based behavior versus emotional short term upset.

From a time cycle perspective we could find ourselves within five to six months at price levels as high as US$14,000.

BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, And Where From Here:

BTC-USDT, daily chart as of July 20th, 2020

Train to think in probabilities, meaning sample size versus individual trade outcome. This is very important!

The daily chart above shows that a breakout through the red resistance line could result into nice profits. There is a higher likelihood for a trend continuation after the sideways period Bitcoin finds itself in. This is rooted in the prior strong directional up leg as a precursor.

The biggest fear, embarrassment

The only way to avoid such failure moments that can be detrimental to your psyche and relationships is to be aware of that possibility and create a culture early on where things do not get pushed underneath the rug. The more open you are to your surrounding field, the more openly you face your own track record and admit to yourself accurately where in the game you are and measure if you are improving or not the likelier is that you do not hit rock bottom or at least if you do with a net of family and friends who value you as a being more than your performance.

The ultimate truth is that we are more than what we do or digits on a bank account but in this profession, one can easily lose sight of that.

Not everyone makes it to the Olympics, not everyone tastes riches, but just because you didn’t make it all the way to the top doesn’t mean venturing into this profession left you without improvement and growth as a person. A shoemaker even if his store fails can still be proud of making great shoes. In trading it is just less transparent but the endless path of mastering obstacles still leaves you a better person compared to the point when you started climbing the mountain.

Disclosure: I am/we are long BTC-USD. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.